Mandel's Mailbag: Which top-10 team won't make the Playoff? Why no love for LSU? (2024)

About once a year, I talk myself into believing a school that’s been floundering for years is just about to turn the corner. Really.

I should know better by now, but, here goes.

Pick a team ranked in the top 10 and an unranked team to swap places before the Playoff. Bonus points if they play each other during the year. — David H.

As we get closer to the season, I do wonder whether Texas will be this year’s inevitable preseason top-10 team that ends up going 7-5.

For one thing, the hype surrounding the Longhorns is based entirely on one great season, after 13 mediocre ones before that. Their schedule includes both the defending national champion (Michigan) and the preseason No. 1 team (Georgia), plus three out-for-blood rivals, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas A&M, all of whom they face away from home. That’s a lot.

Meanwhile, if you haven’t heard, Texas, which was already tasked with replacing second-round running back Jonathon Brooks, is already down to three scholarship running backs after losing starter CJ Baxter and freshman Christian Clark to season-ending injuries. Steve Sarkisian said this week he’s on the hunt for an 11th-hour transfer, of which there aren’t many left.

Given the SEC landed nine teams in the preseason poll, I’m afraid I don’t have a logical top-10 candidate from among its seven unranked clubs. But somebody, somewhere is going to do it. Could that somebody be … Nebraska? The program that hasn’t even reached a bowl game in eight years?

Consider: Matt Rhule’s first team went 5-7, yet all but two of the losses came by one score. The Huskers quietly fielded a top-10 defense that held its last seven opponents to an average 14.3 points per game, and that defense returns the majority of its key players. On the flip side, Nebraska was abysmal on offense in 2023, but the hope is five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola will elevate the Huskers, with help from new receivers like Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest) and Isaiah Neyor (Wyoming and Texas).

But more than anything, Nebraska’s win total could jump considerably because of its almost comical schedule. The Huskers get Colorado at home in their one big nonconference game, then somehow miss Michigan, Penn State and Oregon in league play. Nebraska could very well be 7-0 heading into a near-certain loss at Ohio State. Knock off either USC or Iowa on the road, and top 10 here they come.

By no means am I predicting that, but again, history says someone you can’t possibly conceive to be a top-10 team right now is going to finish in the top 10. And no one deserves that high more than Nebraska fans.

Why are Ole Miss and Missouri getting more offseason hype than LSU? I know Ole Miss had a great transfer class, but LSU has the best offensive line in the country and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Blake Baker who should improve their defense somewhat. If you believe in Garrett Nussmeier, there is no reason that they shouldn’t compete for an SEC title and be firmly in the Playoff race. — Maverick H.

Preseason polls/predictions are at least 75 percent based simply on how a team did last year, and Ole Miss and Missouri, both 11-2 and 6-2 in SEC play, had better seasons than LSU (10-3, 5-3) did. Furthermore, the Rebels and Mizzou exceeded expectations but LSU was a disappointment. So that in turn affects their expectations for this season.

But as we know, most teams’ seasons will not play out as predicted. Among those three, I’d expect one will exceed expectations, one will finish about as predicted and one will be a massive disappointment.

LSU could be the first one, given the talent level it recruits annually. Jayden Daniels is a big, big loss, but we know Nussmeier can lead an offense. Losing two first-round receivers, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., is no small thing, but the Tigers still have Kyren Lacy and Chris Hilton Jr. and added 1,067-yard Liberty receiver CJ Daniels. They’ll be OK.

LSU’s prospects come down to how much last season’s 109th-ranked defense can improve in one offseason. Baker was great at Mizzou, but what kind of talent is he working with in Baton Rouge?

We know linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. can be a playmaker when used properly, and Greg Penn III makes that position group a strength. But the D-line and secondary remain concerns. Brian Kelly acknowledged in the spring that LSU got outbid for the defensive tackles it sought in the portal. The safety spots seem OK, but cornerbacks Ashton Stamps and Javien Toviano need to make big jumps from their freshman seasons.

As for the other two teams mentioned, Ole Miss might be a tad overhyped, but Lane Kiffin’s squad is legit. We know the Rebels will be good on offense, and Kiffin used the portal to stock up on the D-line. I have lower expectations for Mizzou, which needs to prove it’s not a one-hit wonder.

I’ll say the same thing to you, Maverick, that I do to most fans this time of year: I admire your optimism.

I keep hearing that USC is going to struggle in the Big Ten based on past performance from a defense that was led by possibly the worst DC in NCAA history (Alex Grinch). But USC’s offseason weight training program yielded significant results, and they have the two biggest lines in the conference. Why is nobody giving USC a real chance to be substantially improved along the lines? Do analysts genuinely think these beefed-up kids are going to sputter to a 7-5 record? — Kevin P.

I ADMIRE YOUR OPTIMISM, KEVIN! Not to mention your apparent belief that USC is the only team in the country that got bigger/stronger/faster this offseason.

Unfortunately, though, our man Antonio Morales’ reports out of the Trojans’ practices this preseason have expressed concern about the offensive line. And that’s a concern for me because unlike all of Lincoln Riley’s past Oklahoma and USC teams, I’m not certain this one is going to overwhelm people with its offensive assets.

New QB1 Miller Moss looked great in the Holiday Bowl, and he’s got Riley as his QB mentor, so I’m not as worried about his replacing Caleb Williams. But the Trojans also lost receivers Tahj Washington, Brenden Rice and Mario Williams, and running backs MarShawn Lloyd and Austin Jones. Riley will no doubt get every ounce of production he can out of the replacements, most notably star receiver Zachariah Branch and ex-Mississippi State running back Woody Marks, but the ceiling might be lower than in past years.

Combine all that with a schedule that includes four teams ranked in the preseason top 13 (No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Penn State, No. 9 Michigan and No. 13 LSU), and you can see why the 23rd-ranked Trojans’ modest preseason expectations might not match up with their gaudy weight room numbers.

Speaking of USC …

Are you surprised Malachi Nelson lost the QB battle at Boise State? While I don’t follow Boise State closely, Nelson was a 5-star recruit for USC and it seemed strategic that he chose Boise State. Given that Maddux Madsen is a redshirt sophom*ore doesn’t bode particularly well for Nelson, either. — Andrew E.

I’m not surprised only because the word trickling out of both USC last year and Boise State this year was how much the Los Alamitos, Calif., native was struggling.

But if you’d told me two years ago that this was how Nelson’s college career would start, I would have been dumbfounded.

I’m generally a defender of the folks who do the recruiting rankings. I don’t envy having to project which 16-year-olds are or are not going to pan out in college given the umpteen variables that affect their development. Of course, the services are going to have whiffs, but their hit rate, especially at the five-star level, is pretty impressive. Case in point: Seven of the top 10 players from 247Sports’ 2020 rankings have already been drafted, and four of them — Alabama’s Bryce Young and Will Anderson, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. and Georgia’s Jalen Carter — were top-10 picks.

But man, the five-star QBs can really be boom or bust. For every Young, Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams, there’s a JT Daniels, Spencer Rattler or Sam Huard. All were considered the surest of sure things coming out of high school when in reality, there are very few sure things at that position.

Which makes the 2023 class an interesting case study. There were an unusually high five QBs who earned a five-star distinction in the 247Sports Composite: Arch Manning, Nico Iamaleava, Dante Moore, Jackson Arnold and Nelson. Tennessee’s Iamaleava and Oklahoma’s Arnold made their first starts in their bowl games and enter this season as The Guy. Whereas Nelson and Moore (UCLA/Oregon) are already on to their second schools, where they’re both backups. Texas’ Manning is voluntarily waiting until next year to earn the nod.

If history is any indication, one of those guys will go on to become a No. 1 draft pick and another won’t be far behind; a third will be a good-but-not-great college starter and the other two will be busts. Stay tuned.

Coaches have historically talked about how special bowl trips are. Make the argument that a trip to the Outback Bowl is more special than accepting a 10 seed in the CFP. — Mark C.

It’s called the ReliaQuest Bowl now, and I don’t even think the CEO of ReliaQuest would make that argument with a straight face.

Speaking of the CFP …

When Selection Sunday comes, what will be the criteria and approach the committee will use to determine seeding? Are there any marked differences or approaches from prior seasons? If Clemson loses to Georgia, how hard will it be to get in knowing how the ACC is stacking up this year? — Kraig B.

It will be the same criteria as before — schedule strength, Top 25 wins, injuries, head-to-head, etc. The only thing that is now moot is the emphasis on winning a conference championship, as conference champions are now automatically in.

Technically, Clemson’s losing to Georgia has no bearing on its chances. If the Tigers turn around and win the ACC, they’re in. But obviously, it reduces their margin for error if they do end up in the at-large pool. Say the Tigers lose to Georgia, go on to win at Florida State on Oct. 5 but trip up Nov. 9 at Virginia Tech and then lose in the ACC Championship Game. Now Clemson is a three-loss team with possibly only one Top 25 win. That’s not going to stack up well against other two- or three-loss candidates.

On the bright side: Beat Georgia and the Tigers are going to have one of the best wins of any at-large candidate in the country.

Stew, let’s talk about the Texas State Bobcats, shall we? Does 12 wins get them into that Playoff? — Mark G.

Texas State is the real deal, man. G.J. Kinne already had 16 starters returning from the Sun Belt’s most-improved team in 2023. Then he added the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year, former James Madison quarterback Jordan McCloud. The Bobcats are without question the best team in the West Division (yes, the Sun Belt still has divisions), and if they can get into the league title game, away we go.

I just wish they had a better nonconference opponent than Arizona State for the sake of their resume because the committee doesn’t respect the Sun Belt like it does the AAC. But hey, Liberty went undefeated against air last season and still got the New Year’s Six berth. Why not Texas State?

When the CFP selection day arrives, will the bracket have sites locked in for all games? For example, will the No. 1 seed know the location for both its quarterfinal and possible semifinal games? If so, will the semifinal locations be assigned based on geography, with the assumption that the No. 1 seed advances? — Ralph M.

Yes, yes and yes.

When possible, the committee will assign the quarterfinal sites based on traditional bowl-conference partnerships. Let’s use the preseason AP poll to seed the teams. No. 1 Georgia, as SEC champion, would be sent to the Sugar Bowl, and No. 2 seed Ohio State, as Big Ten champ, would go to the Rose Bowl. The ACC’s traditional bowl, the Orange, is hosting a semifinal this year, so that’s not an option for No. 3 seed/ACC champ Florida State. It would instead go to the Peach Bowl, which is considerably closer than the Fiesta. No. 4 seed Utah goes to the desert.

The two semifinal sites this year are the Orange and Cotton bowls. Georgia is the No. 1 seed, so the Dawgs and No. 4 seed Utah would feed into the Orange Bowl semi, leaving the Cotton to No. 2 Ohio State/No. 3 FSU.

Important note that I will reinforce frequently throughout the season: The teams will not be reseeded after any round. So, say the Dawgs get knocked off in their quarterfinal by No. 8 seed Texas. That doesn’t mean the Horns would then advance to the Cotton Bowl, instead. The bracket would remain as drawn up on Selection Sunday.

Hope that all makes sense.

Let’s say it’s the last week of the regular season. Ohio State and Michigan have already clinched spots in the Big Ten title game. The winner of that is certainly a 1 or 2 seed while the loser knows they’re getting into the first round. What are the chances coaches rest players a la NFL teams that have clinched all they can? — Mark

You’re asking if Sherrone Moore or Ryan Day would voluntarily risk losing the one game their fans care about more than life itself to be fresh for a 6 vs. 11 first-rounder?

Sure. If they don’t mind going into witness protection afterward.

Which “Pac-12” school ends up with a better record this season: Washington State or Oregon State? — Brad B.

I have to imagine it will be the Cougs. Oregon State lost a great coach, Jonathan Smith, and got decimated by portal departures like quarterbacks DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State) and Aidan Chiles (Michigan State), star running back Damien Martinez (Miami), top receiver Silas Bolden (Texas) and leading tackler Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (USC). Wazzu lost a bunch of guys, too, most notably QB Cam Ward (Miami), but coach Jake Dickert stayed, as did top receiver Kyle Williams. It’s not a total wipeout.

Also, I don’t know enough has been made about the fact these two schools are going to be playing Group of 5 schedules with, mostly, Power 5 players. Oregon State might be considerably less talented than last year’s 8-5 squad yet still be favored against two-thirds of its schedule — everyone but Oregon, Cal, Washington State and Boise State. Wazzu, 5-7 a year ago, could easily win nine or 10 games.

And though that won’t get either of them in the Playoff, they could play in a decent bowl. This hasn’t gotten much publicity, but all the current and former Pac-12 schools are still locked into the same bowl partners as before (Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence). And it’s expected they’re going to follow a “one-win” rule, so if Wazzu goes 10-2 and USC goes 8-4, the Alamo Bowl can’t take the Trojans over the Cougs.

And Wazzu, which plays nine of its 12 games against Mountain West/FCS foes, has a better chance of winning 10 than the Big Ten’s Trojans do.

Hi, Stew. If your friend was getting into college football for their first-ever season and asked you for a team to root for, who would you say? It wouldn’t be fair to pick someone that always wins (i.e., Georgia, Bama) or fun to pick a team that mostly struggles (i.e., Vanderbilt, UMass). Your friendship rests on this decision! — Daniel S.

Trick question. There is no team I could recommend that wouldn’t guarantee my friend inevitable heartbreak and pain over the ensuing years, therefore ending our friendship.

It would be like going back in time, introducing Jennifer Lopez to Ben Affleck and saying, “Trust me, you guys are going to live happily ever after.”

(Top photo of Quinn Ewers: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)